St Austell Bay - Where did it all go wrong for the Tories?

On Thursday the Conservatives lost their third safest seat on Cornwall Council in a surprise by-election result in St Austell Bay. The popular local Councillor Richard Stewart, who resigned from the council in October due to ill health, had won the seat for the Tories in June with a majority of 361 in what was considered to be largely 'blue' territory. How then did they come to suffer a 13% swing to the Liberal Democrats only six months later?

I think the first point to make is that Richard Stewart was a highly respected and popular local representative who had previously served the area for many years on Restormel Borough Council. Inevitably a large proportion of his majority in June was a personal vote, so this may go some way towards explaining the extent of the swing. Nevertheless, great chunks of the St Austell Bay ward should be strong Tory hunting grounds (particularly the Carlyon Bay area) and certainly enough to make this a safe seat.

Some will make the argument that the new Tory/Independent administration is already unpopular and that this result reflects public disgruntlement which will stop Tory gains in next year's General Election. I don't think this is true - yet. Much as there are many reasons to criticise the new rulers at County Hall, I don't really think that debate is yet taking place to any extent beyond those who watch Cornish local government closely (most people have better things to do, I suppose). There is perhaps a sense that it's probably someone else's turn to run the Council after the Liberal Democrat years and that the new administration should be allowed time to find their feet. There is also the fact that a Tory-led Council has a friendly, Daily Mail-owned print media and the odd aspiring (yet confused) shock-jock as its sole scrutineers in the outside world.

So what turned everything upside down in St Austell Bay?

The Tories would have started the campaign as frontrunners, so it was important they picked the right candidate to set the tone of the campaign. Bob 'The Agent' Davidson is a highly-rated political organiser for the Conservatives, and is the man in charge of their well-funded mission to challenge the Lib Dems in Cornwall at next year's General Election. He doesn't live in the ward.

By contrast the Lib Dems picked John Oxenham, a well-known local man with a reputation for hard work who does live in the ward. The battle lines pretty much draw themselves.

Add to that a couple of contentious planning issues and the usual committed local campaign from the local Lib Dems and you start to see how the gap was narrowed.

I can't honestly say I blame the voters of St Austell Bay for rejecting a party spin doctor who had only recently stood (and lost) in another ward. There was a hint of arrogance, hubris even, in the Tories taking the voters for granted and assuming they could give their agent a salary and a role at the heart of things without offering anything in return.

And that is probably the biggest lesson for the Tories. They are starting to display the same arrogance in the way they are running Cornwall Council, and if they don't stop to listen they may yet find that the voters across Cornwall will punish them a good deal sooner than they think.